--- title: "Weighted sales forecast: how to calculate it | attendo" description: "What a weighted sales forecast is, how to calculate it with an example, why probability should be set by stage and not by feel, and how to check calibration." url: "https://attendo.me/en/glossary/weighted-forecast" lang: "en" --- # Weighted forecast: how to calculate it and make it credible Also known as: Weighted pipeline A weighted forecast is the sum of open opportunities, each multiplied by its probability of closing. How to calculate it Weighted forecast = Σ (value of each opportunity × its probability of closing) ## An example Three $10,000 opportunities at 80%, 50% and 20% give 8,000 + 5,000 + 2,000 = **$15,000** of weighted forecast. ## The problem with subjective probability If each salesperson picks whatever percentage feels right, the forecast is the sum of the team’s optimism. The answer is to **tie the probability to the stage**, not to each opportunity: if “proposal reviewed” is 40%, it is 40% for everyone. And that 40% comes from your history, not from a hunch. ## How to know it works By measuring the gap between forecast and closed deals every month. If the gap is large and always goes the same way, the stage probabilities are poorly calibrated: recalculate them with the year’s data. ## The usual mistake Using the weighted forecast to commit to targets. It is a tool for managing the pipeline, not a commitment. To commit to a number, you have to look at the opportunities one by one. ## In attendo [attendo CRM](https://attendo.me/en/crm) calculates the weighted forecast by probability. On each opportunity record you see its probability with the weighted forecast, and you can change it. In the per-salesperson reports, the [sales AI](https://attendo.me/en/modules/ai-crm) writes a plain-language reading and drops any sentence with figures that are not in the report. - [attendo CRM](https://attendo.me/en/crm) ## Where it is used in attendo ### Modules - [Sales AI](https://attendo.me/en/modules/ai-crm): The AI in attendo CRM: clean, scored leads with a draft reply - [Kanban](https://attendo.me/en/modules/kanban): Boards by status for any document type - [Web quotes](https://attendo.me/en/modules/quotes-and-web-offers): Quotes with options that the customer opens, picks and accepts ### Industries that use these modules - [Facility maintenance and services](https://attendo.me/en/industries/facility-maintenance) - [Repair and after-sales service](https://attendo.me/en/industries/after-sales-repair) - [Equipment manufacturers and distributors](https://attendo.me/en/industries/equipment-manufacturers) - [Contractors, construction and engineering](https://attendo.me/en/industries/contractors) - [And any other business](https://attendo.me/en/industries) ## Related terms Sales and customers ### Sales pipeline Pipeline The sales pipeline is the set of open sales opportunities, organized by the stage each one is in. Sales and customers ### Churn Customer churn · churn rate Churn is the loss of existing customers, usually because they do not renew their contract. Sales and customers ### Customer profitability Account profitability Customer profitability is the difference between what you bill an account and what it costs you to serve it. ### On the blog #### How to build a sales forecast you can defend Everyone has a pipeline. Few have a forecast they trust. The difference is not the tool: it is how the stages are defined. 3 min read [See all 53 glossary terms](https://attendo.me/en/glossary) ## Shall we look at it with your data? We will show you how what you just read works in attendo, with your own assets, tickets and customers. If it is not a fit, we will tell you. - With your operation, not a generic demo - A real person from our team replies - No cold calls afterwards Would you rather talk first? - Phone [+34 910 053 530](tel:+34910053530) - Email [sales@attendo.me](mailto:sales@attendo.me) - Monday to Thursday 9:30 AM to 6:30 PM and Friday 9:30 AM to 2:30 PM (Spain time)